A Quick Note on Premature Takes on Turnout and National Margin

A perspective that I think is getting lost in many analyses is how the shift was not that big and In the end Harris will be closer than Trump was in 2020 terms of popular vote and similarly close to turning the EC.

I don't think she will catch him in popular vote (may be close, and nice if she did) but it will tighten– millions of votes left in CA and NY. Need to wait on that to gauge overall vote shift.

And specifically in the "Blue Wall" (MI, WI, PA) - right now Trump is collectively up ~241K while Biden took them by ~356K (I think he also needed one of NV, AZ or GA to get home, however). Turnout in the three states are roughly similar to 2020 and that shift is equivalent to about 300K voters changing their vote in a voting population of ~14.6M.

So in those three states, we would have these results if about 1 person in 50 flipped from Biden to Trump.